I received an anonymous email the other day from someone who claims to be a network architect working for one of Australia's largest Telco's. In the email they try to expose the Australian National Broadband Network (NBN) as being "another $60 billion wasted".
Here we try to go through the email and explain that not everything that this anonymous network architect says is quite right.
EXPOSED?
ANOTHER $60 BILLION WASTED?
I am a network architect for one of Australia ’s largest Telco’s (guess who?) - so I speak with some authority on this issue.
Here are the technical reasons this will fail :
1) fibre optic cable has a maximum theoretical lifespan of 25 years when installed in conduit. Over time, the glass actually degrades (long story), and eventually it cant do it`s bouncing of light thing anymore. But when you install fibre outside on overhead wiring (as will be done for much of Australia ’s houses, except newer suburbs with underground wiring), then the fibre degrades much quicker due to wind, temperature variation and solar/cosmic radiation. The glass in this case will last no more than 15 years. So after 15 years, you will have to replace it. Whereas the copper network will last for many decades to come. Fibre is not the best technology for the last mile. That`s why no other country has done this.
According to Nortel Networks’ Ryan Perera the lifespan of fibre optic cables has changed throughout the years thanks to advances in technology (25-40 years, where minimum theoretical lifespan is 25 years) . “We can run 100gig on 15 year old fibre. The age of the fibre has nothing to do with it any more, thanks to the dispersion compensation techniques we use”.1
On the other hand claims that copper wire buried has no corrosion/oxidation as opposed to fibre optic cable are also false as copper wire also has a lifespan of 30-50 years with a minimum theoretical of 30 years.
There are also many countries using fibre to the home (FTTH) Japan being one of them using such technology since 1991).
2) You can not give every house 100Mbps. If you give several million households 100Mbps bandwidth, then you have exceeded the entire bandwidth of the whole internet. In reality, there is a thing called contention. Today, every ADSL service with 20Mbps has a contention ratio of around 20:1 (or more for some carriers). That means, you share that 20Mbps with 20 other people. It`s a long story why, but there will NEVER be the case of people getting 100Mbps of actual bandwidth. Not for several decades at current carrier equipment rates of evolution. The “Core” can not and will not be able to handle that sort of bandwidth. The 100Mbps or 1Gbps is only the speed from your house to the exchange. From there to the Internet, you will get the same speeds you get now. The “Core” of Australia ’s network is already fibre (many times over). And even so, we still have high contention ratios. Providing fibre to the home just means those contention ratios go up. You will not get better download speeds.
Average real-world speed of FTTH is 66 Mbit/s in the whole of Japan, and 78 Mbit/s in Tokyo.2
FTTH first started with 10 Mbit/s (end-user rate) passive optical network (PON) by Nippon Telegraph and Telephone (NTT), and 100 Mbit/s (end-user rate) with GEPON (Gigabit Ethernet-PON) or broadband PON as the major one in 2006. PON is the major system for FTTH by NTT, but some competitive services present 1 Gbit/s (at end-user rate) with SS (Single Star). Currently, most people use 100 Mbit/s.3
3) new DSL technologies will emerge. 15 years ago we had 56k dial-up. Then 12 years ago we got 256k ADSL, then 8 years ago 1.5Mbps ADSL2, then 5 years ago 20Mbps ADSL2+. There are already new DSL technologies being experimented on that will deliver over 50Mbps on the same copper we have now. $zero cost to the tax payer.
“There are still some people querying that there’s going to be some new technology that’s going to replace fibre and as recently as yesterday people saying that fibre is no longer the technology of the future,” he said.
“I’m not exactly sure what parallel universe people live on but fibre will be the way of the future.”
- Optus director Maha Krishnapillai 4
4) 4G wireless is being standardised now. The current 3G wireless was developed for voice and not for data, and even so it can deliver up to 21Mbps in Australia. There are problems with it, but remember that it was developed for voice. The 4G standard is specifically being developed for data, and will deliver 100Mbps bandwidth with much higher reliability (yes, the same contention issues apply mentioned earlier). $zero cost to the tax payer.
3g vs 4g real world speeds were conducted recently in New York - USA where the 4G network delivered an average download speed of 4.1Mbps approximately what on average a wired DSL or cable modem connection will provide these days. This was however seven times faster than the 3G service, which averaged 550Kbps. The peak 4G download speed received was 11.2Mbps which is obviously nowhere near the 21Mbps claimed above.
5) The “NBN” will be one of the largest single networks ever built on earth. There are only a few companies who could do it - Japan’s Nippon NTT, BT, AT&T;, Deutsche Telekom etc. Even Telstra would struggle to build something on this scale. Yet we are led to believe that the same people who cant build school halls or install insulation without being ripped off are going to to do it ??? Here at Telstra, we are laughing our heads off !! Because when it all comes crumbling down, after they have spent $60+billion and the network is no more than 1/2 complete, it will be up to Telstra to pick up the pieces!
(shhhh don't tell anyone, it`s our secret)
1. http://www.itwire.com/business-it-news/technology/26656-current-backhaul-networks-wont-support-the-nbn-says-nortel
Here we try to go through the email and explain that not everything that this anonymous network architect says is quite right.
EXPOSED?
ANOTHER $60 BILLION WASTED?
I am a network architect for one of Australia ’s largest Telco’s (guess who?) - so I speak with some authority on this issue.
Here are the technical reasons this will fail :
1) fibre optic cable has a maximum theoretical lifespan of 25 years when installed in conduit. Over time, the glass actually degrades (long story), and eventually it cant do it`s bouncing of light thing anymore. But when you install fibre outside on overhead wiring (as will be done for much of Australia ’s houses, except newer suburbs with underground wiring), then the fibre degrades much quicker due to wind, temperature variation and solar/cosmic radiation. The glass in this case will last no more than 15 years. So after 15 years, you will have to replace it. Whereas the copper network will last for many decades to come. Fibre is not the best technology for the last mile. That`s why no other country has done this.
According to Nortel Networks’ Ryan Perera the lifespan of fibre optic cables has changed throughout the years thanks to advances in technology (25-40 years, where minimum theoretical lifespan is 25 years) . “We can run 100gig on 15 year old fibre. The age of the fibre has nothing to do with it any more, thanks to the dispersion compensation techniques we use”.1
On the other hand claims that copper wire buried has no corrosion/oxidation as opposed to fibre optic cable are also false as copper wire also has a lifespan of 30-50 years with a minimum theoretical of 30 years.
There are also many countries using fibre to the home (FTTH) Japan being one of them using such technology since 1991).
2) You can not give every house 100Mbps. If you give several million households 100Mbps bandwidth, then you have exceeded the entire bandwidth of the whole internet. In reality, there is a thing called contention. Today, every ADSL service with 20Mbps has a contention ratio of around 20:1 (or more for some carriers). That means, you share that 20Mbps with 20 other people. It`s a long story why, but there will NEVER be the case of people getting 100Mbps of actual bandwidth. Not for several decades at current carrier equipment rates of evolution. The “Core” can not and will not be able to handle that sort of bandwidth. The 100Mbps or 1Gbps is only the speed from your house to the exchange. From there to the Internet, you will get the same speeds you get now. The “Core” of Australia ’s network is already fibre (many times over). And even so, we still have high contention ratios. Providing fibre to the home just means those contention ratios go up. You will not get better download speeds.
Average real-world speed of FTTH is 66 Mbit/s in the whole of Japan, and 78 Mbit/s in Tokyo.2
FTTH first started with 10 Mbit/s (end-user rate) passive optical network (PON) by Nippon Telegraph and Telephone (NTT), and 100 Mbit/s (end-user rate) with GEPON (Gigabit Ethernet-PON) or broadband PON as the major one in 2006. PON is the major system for FTTH by NTT, but some competitive services present 1 Gbit/s (at end-user rate) with SS (Single Star). Currently, most people use 100 Mbit/s.3
3) new DSL technologies will emerge. 15 years ago we had 56k dial-up. Then 12 years ago we got 256k ADSL, then 8 years ago 1.5Mbps ADSL2, then 5 years ago 20Mbps ADSL2+. There are already new DSL technologies being experimented on that will deliver over 50Mbps on the same copper we have now. $zero cost to the tax payer.
“There are still some people querying that there’s going to be some new technology that’s going to replace fibre and as recently as yesterday people saying that fibre is no longer the technology of the future,” he said.
“I’m not exactly sure what parallel universe people live on but fibre will be the way of the future.”
- Optus director Maha Krishnapillai 4
4) 4G wireless is being standardised now. The current 3G wireless was developed for voice and not for data, and even so it can deliver up to 21Mbps in Australia. There are problems with it, but remember that it was developed for voice. The 4G standard is specifically being developed for data, and will deliver 100Mbps bandwidth with much higher reliability (yes, the same contention issues apply mentioned earlier). $zero cost to the tax payer.
3g vs 4g real world speeds were conducted recently in New York - USA where the 4G network delivered an average download speed of 4.1Mbps approximately what on average a wired DSL or cable modem connection will provide these days. This was however seven times faster than the 3G service, which averaged 550Kbps. The peak 4G download speed received was 11.2Mbps which is obviously nowhere near the 21Mbps claimed above.
5) The “NBN” will be one of the largest single networks ever built on earth. There are only a few companies who could do it - Japan’s Nippon NTT, BT, AT&T;, Deutsche Telekom etc. Even Telstra would struggle to build something on this scale. Yet we are led to believe that the same people who cant build school halls or install insulation without being ripped off are going to to do it ??? Here at Telstra, we are laughing our heads off !! Because when it all comes crumbling down, after they have spent $60+billion and the network is no more than 1/2 complete, it will be up to Telstra to pick up the pieces!
(shhhh don't tell anyone, it`s our secret)
1. http://www.itwire.com/business-it-news/technology/26656-current-backhaul-networks-wont-support-the-nbn-says-nortel
Wow, this is why we don't have people like this 'telco engineer' run the country. He dismisses why Australia continued to fall further and further back in broadband terms, corroding copper, over subscribed exchanges, numerous black spots and ever decreasing reliability rates.
ReplyDeleteThis is also an insight into how millions of first time Telstra shareholders lost billions of dollars on a poor privatisation and subsequent management stuff ups from a company that lost more customers than any other company in Australia's history.
Thankfully now with pragmatic leadership, the NBN investment and Aussie ambition Telstra is making a come back.